Pro Football Forecast Betting Handicapping Software Engine Explained

The Pro Football Forecast Betting Handicapping Software Engine started out as an idea and developed into a system about 16 years ago, before everything was so computerized. The core of the system has been remained similar to its origin, but has been refined and improved over they years by analyzing different factors and computing their affect on the outcome of games. About 11 years ago I coded the Pro Football Forecast Betting Handicapping Software Engine into a BASIC program for my own use. It remained in this state until about 7 years ago when I again transformed the program into an excel spreadsheet which enabled much greater flexibility in analysis of factors, which in turn enabled a greater winning percentage to emerge. This type of regression analysis over the past 6 years or so has fine-tuned the Pro Football Forecast Betting Handicapping Software Engine into the product that it is today.

THE POINT SPREAD
The point spread is a number that bookmakers set that tries to lure equal amounts of money on each team, it is not meant to reflect an expected point difference between two teams. If we can statistically predict what is most likely to occur and the expected point differential between the two teams are different than the published point spread then we might have the basis for a winning wager.

The oddsmakers take into account the current public perception of team strength. However, the public may be swayed by the historical results of a so-called superior team when in fact that team is on the decline, or vice-versa. Or perhaps a team has been running up high scores, but in fact has been playing inferior oponents. Using the factors in the Pro Football Forecast Betting Handicapping Software Engine, we can push past the public opinion and focus on the real facts and statistics that make a difference in team performance.

THE SYSTEM
The first step used by the System in analyzing each game is to use key offensive and defensive statistics (which are easily available in the newspaper or on the internet) to calculate a Predicted Score for each game. The exact calculation method and weighted factors that produces this predicted score is the basis of the Pro Football Forecast Betting Handicapping Software Engine and so I am not able to discuss exactly how it is calculated, however I can give you a brief description. The Pro Football Forecast Betting Handicapping Software Engine quantifies the offensive efficiency of each team as well as their defensive efficiency, and how these key statistics relate to each other and are translated into points.
In addition, other important statistical factors come into play when evaluating football games. This system can examine blowout scores to see if they are a result of simply a better team, or in fact were lucky bounces that occured via turnovers. In fact, in 75% of NFL games from recent history the team that covered the spread was the team that had a better turn-over differential. Another important trend factor analyzed is a rolling strength team power rating where trends of wins or losses can be a helpful predictor of future games. There is also a home field advantage factor that is added to the statistical mix as well.
All these factors are combined to compute the Predicted Score which is then compared with the betting line point spread to see if any discrepancies can be discerned and to see if the point spread is accurate, or if it has been swayed by misguided public opinion or money hungry oddsmakers.

WINNING PERCENTAGE
Using the Pro Football Forecast Betting Handicapping Software Engine has allowed me to achieve a winning percentage slightly over 60% overall in the past 5 seasons. In 2004, the System went 67.7% winners straight-up and 61.3% on best bets against the spread. In 2005 the System went 70% winners straight up and 65% for best bets. In 2006 it was another profitable year for the system going 58.3% versus the spread and 61% in straight up bets. See the year to date results on this website as well.
An overall winning percentage of 58-60% against the spread will get you a surprisingly nice profit wagering on individual games. If the system selects 57% winners over a single season, this would result in a record of 137-103. If the games were bet at 11/10 odds the income would be 137*$91 - 103*$100 = $2,167.
Therefore, you can see that an overall winning percentage of 57-60% against the spread will beat your bookie, or top your NFL office pool this season for sure!

OTHER BETTING SERVICES
Many internet handicapping services charge a high price for their weekly NFL picks however it does not correlate to a higher winning percentage.
There are many warning signs of dubious internet handicapping services that you should look out for. One can be the high price of their weekly picks. They also might claim a lifetime winning percentage of 70% or more versus the line (impossible!) or have many "locks" or "Game of the Year" NFL picks every week. A handicapping service that asks you to pay a large amount of money for advice on only one NFL game, and is not able to expalan to you how their system operates is not out for your best interest.

IN SUMMARY
There are many different statistics in football but only a few of them are the critical ones that determine the outcome of games! The Pro Football Forecast Betting Handicap Software analyzes the most important statistical factors that affect a game's outcome and zeroes in on the games that show the greatest differential between the point spread and your predicted outcome. These are the games to bet on!

We have been providing this service on the internet for over 6 years and have had many satisifed clients who have returned each year to renew our Premium Service.Please consider purchasing the Professional Football Handicapping Engine. I know you will find it money well spent.