The Science of Football Handicapping is based on numbers. There is a
power in using numbers that reflect what happened in the past in order to
predict what might happen in the future. The science used here is to take
those numbers and to use and present them in an understandable form. The
"numbers" of football are the typical stats that you find in the box
scores. The other, more important numbers, are those that relate to the
point spread. Remember, the point spread is a number that tries to lure
equal amounts of money on each team, it is not meant to reflect an expected
point difference between two teams. If we can predict what is most likely
to occur and the expected point difference is different than the published
point spread then we might be on to something.
Point spreads generally vary between zero and seventeen, and
either the home team or the away team is dubbed the favorite. A "zero"
points spread really means "just pick who wins" and is generally refered to
as a "pick-em". Typically, over the last fifteen years, the home team is
the favorite about two-thirds of the time, with the commonest point spreads
being in the range of 3 to 7 points. In analyzing the Science of Football
Handicapping, eleven categories of games have been devised.These are based
upon which team (home or away) was favored and by how many points.
Here are the categories
Now look at the actaul margins of victory in Pro Football over the last ten
years:
Favorite Point Spreads Percentage of Games
None
Pick 'Em 0 2.5 %
Home
Slight 1 to 2.5 9.4 %
Typical 3 to 6.5 34.0 %
Strong 7 to 9.5 12.5 %
Very Strong 10 to 13.5 8.0 %
Heavy 14 or more 2.6 %
Away
Slight 1 to 2.5 8.5 %
Typical 3 to 6.5 15.9 %
Strong 7 to 9.5 5.1 %
Very Strong 10 to 13.5 1.3 %
Heavy 14 or more 0.2 %
These are point spreads, don't forget, and whoever sets these does a great
job. If you were to slavishly bet all home favorites you would lose. They
"cover" the spread about 49.5%. Similarily, if you bet all away favorites
you would lose. They "cover" the spread about 50.5% of the time. Both these
percentages are less that the "Magic Number" of 52.4% which is the
break-even point (the percentage of winners you need to make money). This gives some indication of what we are up against.
Margin of Victory Percentage
1 to 2.5 8.5 %
3 to 6.5 29.0 %
7 to 9.5 11.0 %
10 to 13.5 13.5 %
14 or more 38.0 %
See, most games end up with one team winning by more than 14 points, so the
point spreads don't reflect what really happens or is supposed to happen.
In fact, the point spread is a bit of a smoke screen designed to make
picking a team more difficult. The simplest (?) way of making a selection
is to decide which team will win the game and then bet that one, completly
ignoring the point spread. In fact, if you could simply pick the winner of
every Pro Football game you would "cover the spread" (i.e. win ) about 82%
of the time!!!! This is a huge number but it is, obviously, impossible to
pick every game correctly.
Therefore, it is important that you have a scientific way of handicapping games and that is what the Pro Football Forecast Betting Handicap Software does for you. By analyzing the most important statistical factors that affect a game's outcome, you are able to zero in on the games that show the greatest differential between the point spread and your predicted outcome. These are the games to bet on!
Please consider purchasing the Professional Football Handicapping Engine. I know you will find it money well spent.