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Football Handicapping Statistics

The Science of Football Handicapping is based on numbers. There is a power in using numbers that reflect what happened in the past in order to predict what might happen in the future. The science used here is to take those numbers and to use and present them in an understandable form. The "numbers" of football are the typical stats that you find in the box scores. The other, more important numbers, are those that relate to the point spread. Remember, the point spread is a number that tries to lure equal amounts of money on each team, it is not meant to reflect an expected point difference between two teams. If we can predict what is most likely to occur and the expected point difference is different than the published point spread then we might be on to something.

Point spreads generally vary between zero and seventeen, and either the home team or the away team is dubbed the favorite. A "zero" points spread really means "just pick who wins" and is generally refered to as a "pick-em". Typically, over the last fifteen years, the home team is the favorite about two-thirds of the time, with the commonest point spreads being in the range of 3 to 7 points. In analyzing the Science of Football Handicapping, eleven categories of games have been devised.These are based upon which team (home or away) was favored and by how many points.

Here are the categories


    Favorite         Point Spreads      Percentage of Games



  None 

    Pick 'Em              0                    2.5 %



  Home

    Slight             1 to  2.5               9.4 %

    Typical            3 to  6.5              34.0 %

    Strong             7 to  9.5              12.5 %

    Very Strong       10 to 13.5               8.0 %

    Heavy             14 or more               2.6 %



  Away

    Slight             1 to  2.5               8.5 %

    Typical            3 to  6.5              15.9 %

    Strong             7 to  9.5               5.1 %

    Very Strong       10 to 13.5               1.3 %

    Heavy             14 or more               0.2 %

These are point spreads, don't forget, and whoever sets these does a great job. If you were to slavishly bet all home favorites you would lose. They "cover" the spread about 49.5%. Similarily, if you bet all away favorites you would lose. They "cover" the spread about 50.5% of the time. Both these percentages are less that the "Magic Number" of 52.4% which is the break-even point (the percentage of winners you need to make money). This gives some indication of what we are up against.

Now look at the actaul margins of victory in Pro Football over the last ten years:


    Margin of Victory      Percentage



       1 to  2.5              8.5 %

       3 to  6.5             29.0 %

       7 to  9.5             11.0 %

      10 to 13.5             13.5 %

      14 or more             38.0 %

See, most games end up with one team winning by more than 14 points, so the point spreads don't reflect what really happens or is supposed to happen. In fact, the point spread is a bit of a smoke screen designed to make picking a team more difficult. The simplest (?) way of making a selection is to decide which team will win the game and then bet that one, completly ignoring the point spread. In fact, if you could simply pick the winner of every Pro Football game you would "cover the spread" (i.e. win ) about 82% of the time!!!! This is a huge number but it is, obviously, impossible to pick every game correctly.

Therefore, it is important that you have a scientific way of handicapping games and that is what the Pro Football Forecast Betting Handicap Software does for you. By analyzing the most important statistical factors that affect a game's outcome, you are able to zero in on the games that show the greatest differential between the point spread and your predicted outcome. These are the games to bet on!

Please consider purchasing the Professional Football Handicapping Engine. I know you will find it money well spent.

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