BETTING TIPSBETTING TIPS| Handicapping NFL Preseason| K eep Your Records Straight! |Breaking Even Should Make You a Winner! | Quantity Vs. Quality | Exotic Wagering | More Exotic Wagering | Words For The Wise | The Kelly Criterion Part I | The Kelly Criterion Part II | % Of Bankroll | Flat Betting | Double Up Proceed With Caution! | Give Yourself The Best Of It! | You Don't Have To Be A Winner Every Week! | Breaking Even Should Make You A Winner!| Underdogs are a smart bet in the NFL
HANDICAPPING THE NFL PRESEASON
Most professional handicappers know NFL preseason games can be quite rewarding. But bettors also know they must be selective. NFL exhibitions are, after all, just glorified practice games for the billion-dollar league. The key is betting on the teams that “want” a game more than the other side, or betting on the side that will use the far better personnel that day.
THE FORMULA
No, not a handicapping formula. But a coaches’ “preseason progression formula” has emerged in the 1990s-00s. It’s something like this. Use the starters for the first couple of series or the first quarter in Game One, then the backups for a quarter-plus, then the reserves. In Game Two, starters go 1-2 quarters, then the backups one-plus quarters, then the reserves. Game Three is really the dress rehearsal for the regular season, with starters usually going into the third quarter, often trying some of the new stuff they’ve added in training camp; backups might go the rest of the way. Most of the time in the Final Game, the starters play only briefly (unless they need the work), or not at all, with backups and reserves going most of the way, with special focus on players who are “on the bubble” to make the roster.
THE COACHES’ AGREEMENT
There is a general “Gentlemen’s Agreement” among coaches in the NFL preseason, kind of like this: “I will play my starters only against your starters, my backups vs. your backups, reserves vs. your reserves, and I’ll limit blitzes and kick blocks to obvious situations in the first two games.” Fortunately for handicappers, not all the coaches agree to this agreement all the time. Many coaches get “steamed” after a bad performance, or two straight losses. Some coaches (such as Bill Cowher or Tom Coughlin) like to blitz any time they feel like it. A few will sometimes re-insert starters late in a game in order to lock up a win!
SOME EDGES
Biggest Edge of All. The use of better personnel in that game, either
due to injuries, competition, or quality depth, especially at QB.
Most first-time NFL QBs will struggle late in games when working with
reserve personnel, often producing more points for the opposition
than for their own team.
Teams with a Game under Their Belt. Such teams did well last year
when facing teams playing their first exhibition, going 7-2 vs.
the spread. However, “belted teams” are only 13-14 vs. the
spread the L6Ys; 24-23 the L8Ys.
Teams off to an 0-2 Start. Coaches get very antsy when their teams
are 0-2, partly because the last game of the preseason is often a
“throwaway,” with coaches focused primarily on the upcoming
reg.-season opener. 0-2 teams (when not facing another 0-2 team)
were 4-1 vs. the spread last year, 8-6 the L2Ys, 23-15 the L6Ys, and
60% the L17Ys.
Jets vs. Giants. They won’t say so, but this is not “just
another exhibition” when these two meet, at least to the Jets,
who have covered the last 10 meetings! (Wow!)
TOTALS
Do the “Unders” Rule in Early Exhibitions? Sometimes, such as in 2001, when there were only 5 “overs” vs. 13 “unders” in the combined prelim week and full Week One of the preseason schedule (and only 7 “overs” vs. 26 “unders” the first 2+ weeks, by the way). However, the “overs” still lead the “unders” 69-61 in the first 1+ weeks over the L7Ys.
BREAKING EVEN SHOULD MAKE YOU A WINNER!
The
few experienced and successful sportsmen we knew firmly believe that if you
break even in 100 predictions you should wind up a winner. That's not because
50-50 is considered spectacular. Rather, considering the streaks that are
inevitably involved in each season, a sensible wagerer will press a winning
streak (without getting out of control) and back off from a losing trend.
We realize
this strategy is much easier said than done, and if you're not a serious follower
of a sport, you might as well forget it. The uneducated wagerer is at a tremendous
disadvantage here. The reason? Successful streak following is a matter of
feel and intuition. A thorough knowledge of yourself as a wagerer and of the
teams is essential. When you are going good, step up the pace. It does take
a certain amount of courage to press your normal wager or number of plays,
but a winning streak must be exploited. If your luck begins to run bad, retreat
and use caution. If you don't have a good flow going, there's no reason to
push it.
When can
you spot a streak coming on? It probably shouldn't be a set number of consecutive
wins or losses that triggers you into action. Even if you're a sound handicapper,
if your top selections are accompanied by lingering doubt, don't force it.
On the other hand, if you've been doing fairly well and can almost visualize
the final score in the next day's newspaper, the positive vibes have grabbed
you and you should press forward. By using streaks to your advantage, you
should be able to capitalize and make the most of your hot hand (and not get
destroyed by a cold streak).
^TOP
Sports wagering is no different than business...you must keep accurate records
to be successful. Most all of the notable sports bettors keep detailed, accurate
records. These should include:
If you wish to go one step further, visual aids (graphs and charts) can prove even more
enlightening.
You records
should be quite revealing. They should uncover your most fertile wagering
areas, as well as your most troublesome spots. After those trends are apparent,
you'll be more inclined to focus your wagering activity in the profitable
areas.
Also, it's
a good idea to keep track of how your "last minute," "heat
of battle," or "just watching" wagers have performed. Again,
the key is to isolate your most profitable wagering areas.
Granted,
all of this record keeping can be time consuming. If nothing else, however,
you'll become a more intelligent wagerer. If you're already successful, it
should make you even better!
^TOP
When are 60% winners better than 70% winners? Not often.
When managing
money, however, we want the most money to manage, and that will often mean
wagering on numerous games.
There are
two divergent schools of thought on the number of games to wager. Some believe
in highly-selective wagering, playing as few as 3-5 games per week. Others
believe in playing every game on the board, reasoning that if you know your
stuff, why hold back?
In truth,
the best range lies somewhere in between, though probably closer to the lower
example. If one played every game, the exposure to luck (both good and bad)
will probably have too much effect on the selections. Besides, the vigorish
("juice") will eat one alive. On the other hand, if someone rigidly
holds to 3-5 games per week, and a card appears with 10-12 attractive plays,
how is the list to be trimmed? Inevitably, after honing down a list, one will
often discover that many winners were left off.
This isn't
to say that you should play games you don't like. Rather, play the games you
like based on the parameters you've set for yourself.
This is vitally
important when considering quantity vs. quality. Your goal should be to attain
the most positive units at season's end. Of course, picking 80% on all of
the games would be sensational, but it's not realistic. A goal of 60-70% winners
is difficult, but it's attainable (especially if using the Pro Football Handicapping Software Engine!), and it can be more profitable as well as more practical.
So, how can less be more? If you were selective and played five games per
week for 16 weeks (80 games), and managed the near-impossible trick of 70%
winners, it would calculate like this; 56 winners, minus the 24 losers, equals
+32 units. With the "juice" calculated, that's roughly +30 units.
On the other hand, if you played 15 games per week for 16 weeks (240 games),
and connected on 60% of those wagers, you'd be +48 units (144 minus 96), and
after the "juice" would be approximately +38 unitsþfar ahead of
the previous scenario.
^TOP
Webster's defines exotic as "strikingly or excitingly different or unusual."
And that's the reason most gamblers get involved with exotic wagersþexcitementþand
the chance to make a "big score."
Exotic wagering
includes betting cards, parlays, teasers, round robins, ad infinitum in the
sports area. One might as well include bingo, keno, slot machines, and lotteries
in this group, since the odds of winning are roughly the same. Simply put,
most knowledgeable handicappers avoid those types of wagers. Even sports book
administrators admit they aren't good wagers, but they'll gladly accept that
money from the customer for the same reason.
The most
commonly wagered exotic plays are teasers or parlays. A parlay is when one
bets a multiple of teams (2 or more) at once and that all must win or the
wager is lost. A teaser allows one to subtract between 5 and 7 points from
the favorite or add the same number of points to the underdog. The odds payoff
is lower as you subtract or add points. You must play at least two teams,
usually three.
It's difficult
enough to pick the pointspread winner of any game at a proficient level over
the long run. So, knowing that the odds are not stacked in your favor at the outset with the exotic wagers, why
on earth dig yourself into that ditch?
^TOP
The chart below details the facts about parlays: the harder it is to pick winners,
the less proportionate the payoff. Simply put, parlays don't offer payoffs
at true odds.
Winners True Odds Parlay Odds Takeout
2 for 2 3:1 2:1 33%
3 for 3 7:1 5:1 28%
4 for 4 15:1 10:1 33%
6 for 6 63:1 19:1 69%
8 for 8 255:1 149:1 42%
Parlay cards require that one plays the odds listed on the card. There's no
advantage of being able to shop for numbers, as one might playing one game
at a time. True, shrewd handicapping can reduce your odds to better than pure
mathematical chance, but the parlay payoff cards are still too hard to consistently
beat.
Do teasers
look more appealing? Keep in mind that in the NFL, the pointspread normally
affects between only 10-15% of the games played. So, if one can pick the winner
of a game straight- up, the points won't usually matter one way or the other.
The spread comes into play more often in college football, but the payoff
odds are still a disadvantage.
Many books
also mislead the bettors in their methods of stating the odds. For example,
in a two-team parlay the odds might be stated at "3 for 1" on the
card, leading some to believe that they're receiving 3:1. In truth, "3
for 1" translates into 2:1, because one only gets back 3 unitsþtwo of
theirs, plus the unit wagered. That's a significant difference from 3:1, in
which one gets back 4 total unitsþthree from the book, plus the one unit wagered.
^TOP
There
are three key components of sports wagering:
As in most
endeavors, success in sports wagering requires dilligence, savvy, and discipline.
At the beginning, be sure that your record-keeping techniques be utilized.
Detailed, accurate records of your past activity can provide you with clues
as to where your most profitable areas lie, and equally as important, where
the most failure is encountered. Concentrating on more "fertile"
areas should improve your chances for success.
It's also
important to be flexible in the number of game syou play. Don't lock yourself
into a set number of games per week. How often have you made up your mind
to play only three games when eight or nine spots have looked attractive,
only to end up losing the few you played? On the other hand, if you're set
on playing ahigh number of games, you'll inevitable end up forcing plays you
don't like and suffering the consequences. Don't be as concerned about picking
a high % of winners, either; rather, llok for quality in your selections and
strive to get ahead as many units as possible.
^TOP
The Kelly Criterion is a complex math treatise first presented by a Bell Telephone
engineer. Several years ago, it was adapted to sports wagering by a respected
Las Vegas writer, computer analyst and handicapper, Huey Mahl. At that time,
he was one of the chief advocates of using optimal betting methodsspecifically
the Kelly Criterion in sports wagering.
This method
presents a formula to determine what proportion of your bankroll to wager
(risk) on each game in order to realize the maximum possible profit with the
smallest probability of loss. This formula holds regardless of the order or
sequence of wins and losses (with certain limitations). The Kelly Criterion
is a method to help you compound a greater amount of interest on your bankroll
than the "simple" interest gained by using a flat bet method.
In using
this method to determine a proper wagering amount, you must first have the
confidence that you can beat the pointspread at a reasonable winning percentage.
If this reasonable winning percentage is 60% winners (tough, but achievable),
the Kelly Criterion is calculated thusly:
60% (winners)
minus 1.1 x 40, or 60 minus 44=16.
The number
gives us the "Kelly Advantage," or optimum betting amount for maximizing
return. You apply this betting % to your bankroll to determine the amount
of your wager; if your bankroll is $3,000, your wager would be .16 x $3000,
which equals $480 (this includes the vigorish, so your actual expected return
on a winning wager would be .91 x $480, or $436.80).
^TOP
Let's refresh
your mind and again provide the formula for the "Kelly Advantage,"
a formula used to derive the optimal interest from your bankroll.
60% (projected
winners) minus 1.1 x 40, or 60 minus 44=16.
Apply that
betting pct. (16%) to your bankroll to determine the amount of your wager.
If your bankroll is $3000, your wager would be .16 x $3000, or $480.
Keep in mind
that to make the "Kelly Advantage" work, it requires that you project
a reasonable % of winners. Please, be realistic projecting anything above
60% winners and calculating it into your "Kelly Advantage" is inviting
disaster. With the Kelly Method, you're able to take advantage of winning
streaks by betting more. When you're on a losing streak (as everybody will
be on occasion), following the Kelly System automatically reduces the $ amount
of your wager.
True, there
are negative aspects of the Kelly Criterion. Since all of your wagers are
based on a set % of your bankroll, you are, in effect, always losing your
biggest wager and winning your smallest. Many handicappers are not enthralled
with the time involved in calculating the "Kelly Advantage." If
you're on a hot streak and play an inordinate number of games on one days,
you're risking a large % of your bankroll at one time. A higher winning %
is required to break even.
There are,
however, benefits to be derived from this system. By hitting your estimated
or higher winning %, your bankroll will grow geometrically as opposed to arithmetically
in straight flat betting. This "compound interest" will manifest
itself in a relatively short period of time. Also, it automatically sizes
your bet when trying to catch up and reduces the wagers when ahead.
^TOP
Respected
sportsman and handicapper Lem Banker has said, "Never bet more than
you can comfortably afford to lose." This is essential to remember
when determining the size of your bankroll and the amounts of your bets.
Whatever method or system of money management you have chosen for yourself
(flat betting, Kelly Criterion, etc.), it's a must that you set aside a
specific amount that you can comfortably afford to lose and stick by it.
You should never wager any amount that would change your lifestyleþwin or
lose.
After determining
the amount you'll have to wager, your next step should be dividing it up
into segments or parts that you believe will provide the best chance of
staying in action when you hit that inevitable losing streak. You may want
to put more emphasis on a part of the seasonþperhaps the first month or
the last monthþin which you have traditionally had the most success. Don't
risk too big a % of your bankroll at one timeþyou might go broke and be
out of action altogether. The risk is too great, considering the mental
and physical strains you would encounter when vainly trying to catch up.
Once you
have determined the dollar amount that you'll use as a bankroll, a good
rule of thumb is never to risk more than 25% of that amount on any one day
or session. If you find that there is an abnormal number of games to be
bet so that your regular wagers would result in going over your allotted
% of bankroll, it may be a good idea to reduce the size of your bet on each
game so as to not exceed the total amount allocated.
^TOP
The term "flat betting" describes a very simple money management
systemþyour amount wagered on each game is the same, depending on the % of
bankroll you're wagering at a particular time.
There are
distinct advantages to this system. Flat betting eliminates the need to assess
a rating system on each wager. In truth, many who rate games by assigning
them numerical values or probabilities are doing so arbitrarily and without
real logical reason. Some merely assign differing values to the games based
on past history or feelings they have. The degree of emphasis they put on
a particular event can hardly be measured other than by their arbitrary assignment
of a chance of winning. In reality, what are the real chances of that single
event winning? Is a "lock" game 100% sure of winning? If it were,
we'd never need to make another play in our entire lives. Of course, no game
can be a "lock," and the basis of flat betting insures the player
that he won't be conned into going broke on any of these picks.
Another problem
that flat betting eliminates is that of the psychological aftereffects that
often come when preferring one game over another. For example, if you bet
three games and win two, you're at 67% and plus one game if flat betting.
On the other hand, if you bet the same three games but double the wager on
of the contests, you could still pick 67% but end us a loser if the double-up
game ends as a loser. Such a situation can be devastating to your psyche,
as a good job of handicapping is negated by poor money management.
Flat betting
makes it easier to stick to specific rules you may have set up for yourself,
such as avoiding road favorites or bucking certain systems you believe are
strong. Also, you won't find a play that looks good enough to play more than
a single unitþall of your wagers will be the same. In the long run, you'll
probably end up betting the same amount of games, but letting your winning
% grind out a nice profit.
^TOP
There
are some in the wagering community who advocate the practice of "doubling
up" on bets to catch up when behind, reasoning that one isn't likely
to lose two games in a row. Some even believe in continuing to double up until
you've recouped your losses. Some believe this approach similar to a coach
that takes to the passing game when behind allows one to "catch up"
the quickest.
There are,
however, numerous problems with this style of betting. First of all, when
you're losing and begin to push yourself for more plays to "double up"
and catch up, your psychological state isn't conducive to intelligent handicapping.
Forcing bets just to catch up can be an easy way to play yourself out of a
season. Second, when doubling up it takes only three consecutive losses to
fall seven units behind. To then catch up, you'd have to risk 7 units 8 to
go up one unit and that's not worth the risk. Not doubling up would have created
a more manageable deficit. Cold streaks can spell disaster when doubling up.
It's much healthier for you and your bankroll to wager the same amount on
each game ("flat betting") and let your winning % grind out a profit.
Unfortunately, greed dooms most gamblers and their bankrolls somewhere along
the line..
There are
also those who advocate doubling up when ahead in order to take advantage
of hot streaks. Again, this could be a quick way to turn a celebration into
a wake you're putting more emphasis on a game or set of games than you normally
might, for no other reason than avarice. Sure, it's a good idea to step up
your wagers when ahead, since you're evidently handicapping the games well
or riding a hot streak. But doubling up could lead to ruin just as fast when
winning as losing, since you only need to lose half as many games to wipe
out your earnings. And this again will lead to problems with your psyche and
ability to handicap games with a clear mind.
^TOP
It is fundamental in this business never to get the worst of the line. The
shrewd gambler always shops for the best available price. Value! The difference
between a half-point here and a point there may be an important one. Games
are handicapped so accurately that the player who grabs every possible pointspread
advantage can end up winning 10 to 20 games more a season than the player
who accepts the worst of the numbers. Winning the close ones will more than
likely determine the bottom line of your profit-and-loss statement.
Winning players
must shop carefully to avoid getting the worst of any price or line on a game.
If you're serious about this, you owe it to yourself to get the best of the
line. While the pointspread may make the difference in no more than 15% of
the NFL games, shopping for value in the numbers makes common sense. Each
football weekend, several college and NFL pointspread decisions may be decided
by 1-point or less from the consensus Las Vegas line. That's why a shrewd
pointspread shopper has a distinct advantage, especially with so many close
games being played.
Let's also
not forget that the smart wagerer manages his (or her) money in a sensible
manner, so as to capitalize on a hot hand. Self-discipline is the secret.
Without it you can pick 65% winners and end up in the hole. With it you can
bat /500 and never get hurt!
^TOP
We have always thought this quote, made years ago by the owner of a Las
Vegas hotel, pretty much summed up the plight of most wagerers: "The
typical gambler will permit himself to lose far more than he will permit
himself to win. This is the biggest edge the house owns." If you analyze
the traits of most players, you'll probably find that most don't make a
real attempt at winning big until they get behind! As many wagerers find
out, this is usually a quick route to a busted bankroll, since you're forcing
many more picks (and for larger amounts) than you normally might.
Self-discipline
(or lack thereof) and unrealistic expectations can also contribute to this
problem. What many don't realize is that there is no rule stating that you
must be a winner every week. A few losing weeks shouldn't destroy a wagerer.
One should have enough sense to realize that there are ebbs and flows in
this exercise and that everybody who wagers will lose nearly as many as
he winsþand that's only if he's a good wagerer! Don't place yourself in
a position where lady luck can knock you out of business. To do this, keep
cool and don't wager more than a designated bankroll on any given day. By
staying in action continuously you up your chances for encountering success,
but when the tide is against you stay calm so you'll be able to play another
day when the fats turn in your favor. Never try to recoup all of your losses
in one day!
^TOP
The conventional thinking on "bye teams" goes something like this. The in-season week off allows time for players to heal their bumps & bruises, and for coaches to get a little sleep, rejuvenate their creative "juices," and develop a few surprises for upcoming opponents. With healthier players with rested legs, armed with some new schemes, teams coming off their bye week figure to have some nice edges when facing a team that had to play the previous week.
Not so fast, mein freund.
Over the past three seasons (1999-'02), "bye teams" facing "non-bye teams" are only 30-46-1 vs. the spread (39.5%). And the worst offenders are the home favorites (8-24 vs. the number!). Home dogs were 6-6; road favorites and picks 7-6; and road dogs 9-10-1.
So far in the 2002 season, "bye teams" vs. "non-byes" are 5-3 vs. the spread (home favorites 3-12; home dogs 1-1).
My thinking on the previous non-success of the bye home favorites goes something like this. Most coaches give their players several days off during their bye week, with the players taking full advantage, taking mini-vacations, going hunting or fishing, visiting family/friends who they haven't seen since the start of training camp, and/or often showing up on the sidelines of their college teams to lend support and encouragement.
In taking this time off from the regular grind of the long season, the players not only rest their bodies, but they also rest their minds. It's no surprise they lose a bit of their hard-earned "edge," and also no surprise they have trouble regaining their previous rhythm once the "bullets start flying" again on their next game day. Meanwhile, their non-bye opponent is usually in its regular practice routine, with many teams eager to rebound from a loss the previous week.
The numbers of the past three years show that a word to the wise should be sufficient. Generally speaking, pointspread-wise it's better for an NFL team to have its regular rhythm than the extra rest.
1. NFL Parity
The NFL has made great strides to achieve rough equality among teams. It has succeeded. Just look at these SuperBowl teams from the past several years: St. Louis in 2000, Baltimore in 2001, New England in 2002, Tampa Bay in 2003, and Carolina last year. None of these teams were supposed to make it that far but they all did and many won, despite losing records the year before. Unlike the college game, any given team can win on Sunday in the NFL. Why not get some points to boot?
2. A Win is a Win
Again, unlike in College, there is no need to blow-out a team. Favorites that get up early don't typically run up the score in the NFL. It doesn't serve a purpose and in most cases, coaches would rather not embarrass their opponent and/or risk injury to their stars. In the NFL, big leads often dwindle, with underdogs covering late in the game.
3. The Rodney Dangerfield Effect
Underdogs don't get any respect! They don't get it from the public, sometimes leading to higher than deserved spreads. More importantly, they don't get it from their opposition. Good teams can sometimes take bad teams lightly (especially if players and coaches minds are on other things, like next week's tougher opponent). Research and an understanding of historical trends can reveal great situations in which underdogs are poised for an upset.
4. The Public Can't Help Itself
The average bettor loves the popular teams (favorites), oftentimes pushing lines unreasonably high. We saw it during the 90's with Dallas and San Francisco . In fact, almost every week, with the right research, you can spot teams that should be favorites but are getting points against a popular team that has been installed as a favorite due to the public "bandwagon effect." For example, last year Kansas City visited Cincinnati in week 10. The Chiefs had won nine straight and seemed invincible. In hindsight, Cincinnati was the easy underdog pick. Kansas City 's defense was ranked 25 th in the league at the time. Cincinnati was on a roll having won 3 of their last four games and Rudi Johnson was coming into his own. Cincinnati had the emotional edge and nothing to lose by taking a shot at an undefeated team they knew they could beat. However, the public couldn't get over Kansas City 's success and spot this situation.
5. Got Courage?
Most bettors don't have the courage to go with certain underdogs. They see a (perceived) good team versus a (perceived) bad team and assume it won't be a contest. They have formed an opinion about how horrible some teams are based on a recent blowout or past personal gambling loss. Again, with the right combination of statistical and situational research, some undervalued dogs can be spotted each week. There are also certain situations in which bad teams have historically and reliably outperformed their average. Match that with a historically-proven situation in which favorites under-perform and you have yourself a reliable upset scenario.
6. The Point-spread Matters Less than You Think
Historically, the point-spread matters in the NFL only about 16% of the time. In other words, 84% of the time, the team that covers the spread also wins. With this knowledge, if you have underdogs that you really like (based on the right research, not a hunch), you can take them to win straight-up (money line), collecting anywhere from 1.2 to 4 times your original bet. Usually a three-point dog will pay around 140 for 100 for a straight-up win versus 100 for 110 wagered on a regular spread-based pick. Seven point underdogs pay around 250 for 100 for a straight-up win.
What It All Means
Obviously just playing all underdogs is not the answer (that would yield you approximately 50% wins and a negative account balance). However, with the right research, you can spot some very high-value underdog winners each week.
The Pro Football Forecast Betting Handicap Software analyzes the most important statistical factors that affect a game's outcome and zeroes in on the games that show the greatest differential between the point spread and your predicted outcome. These are the games to bet on! Please consider purchasing the Professional Football Handicapping Engine. I know you will find it money well spent.